May 21 Hong Kong (Happy Valley) form analysis

Race 1 (1,200m)

4 Endued was never a chance last time, settling last from barrier 12 in his first outing for Benno Yung, but he closed off well. If he can settle closer, he can improve and should be on a winnable rating.

7 New Power returns on the quick seven-day turnaround. He enjoyed a good run but was held up at the home turn before opting for an inside run, which was not advantageous then. He has been knocking on the door for another win.

1 Jumbo Treasure won all the way at Sha Tin two starts back but was slightly disappointing last time when fading late into fourth. He can bounce back.

10 Shotgun is lightly raced. His latest run, stepping away from gate 11 and closing in for fifth, showed progression. He looks set to take another step forward, especially moving into barrier 1 which improves his map.

Race 2 (1,650m)

5 U S S Constitution's first run in Class 5 was full of hard luck - drawn widest at this course and distance, and then copped a nasty check at the 300m. He gets another chance to make his mark but, having drawn widest again is far from ideal, though he still shapes as a genuine each-way proposition.

7 Verbier was an impressive all-the-way winner two starts ago over this course and trip. Last time, he stepped up to 1,800m and led again, but faded late into fourth. Back in trip is a big plus.

4 Windicator Family broke his maiden with a strong late run from the back two starts ago, then followed it up with a solid third - he remains in the mix.

12 Medic Elite looks to get an ideal run from barrier 1 and is hard to look past in a race like this, especially after resuming from a five-month break with a sound third last start.

Race 3 (1,650m)

8 Soaring Bronco has remained in solid form since shedding his maiden tag four runs ago. He was stretched to 1,800m last start but still ran well, closing in late for fourth. Dropping back to a more suitable trip, he is capable of featuring again.

1 Thesis broke through over this course and distance five starts ago and has held his form well since. Last time, he was trapped wide without cover yet missed by only a head. He is due for another win and remains well placed from barrier 2.

2 Written Casa drops back into Class 4, where he commands respect as a one-time winner from three attempts in the grade. He has been running on well in Class 3 and, while untested over this trip in ideal circumstances, a soft run in transit could bring him right into the finish.

11 California Moxie has had mixed tracks and distances throughout his career, but he appears to have found his niche over the extended mile at the city circuit. He returns to Class 4 and maps ideally up on the pace in a race lacking tempo. Should he get across from barrier 12, he could go back-to-back.

Race 4 (1,650m)

2 Mighty Commander finished third last time, when he was caught wide without cover and could not be fully ridden out late when crowded between the winner and runner-up. He gets his chance to bounce back in a big way.

7 Dragon Star comes off three consecutive runner-up finishes. He maps perfectly again and looks ready to get his nose in front when it counts.

10 Jumbo Fortune finished fourth last time, just over a length away, in a run that was better than it reads given he was tight for room late. His consistency since joining David Eustace keeps him in the mix, especially from a sweet draw.

4 Stormi has been improving since the class drop. Two runs back, he produced his best effort yet with a fast-finishing third. Last start, he settled further back and found traffic in the straight before closing late into eighth, albeit not beaten far. He is a definite contender.

Race 5 (1,000m)

6 Lean Master returns to Happy Valley where he has performed best, following a series of solid efforts at Sha Tin, including a third two starts ago and a late-fading fourth last time. Both are strong form references for a race of this nature. He will lead and prove hard to get past.

12 Day Day Victory is in good form after back-to-back wins in Class 5, and he does not look out of place despite the class rise. He is also well placed on the light weight.

7 La Momento has shown improvement in recent trials and, with only two starts under his belt, he can improve.

11 Savvy Twinkle has had two runs over this trip, including his last-start second to Super Sixty on the city circuit. Barrier 9 is a bit of a dampener, but having Zac Purton on board for the first time will definitely boost his chances.

Race 6 (1,200m)

11 Draco had a horrid run in transit last start, suffering interference early before being taken very wide by an unruly runner. Despite that, he was beaten only over three lengths into seventh. A kinder trip from barrier 4 brings him right back into contention.

7 Nebraskan continues to race well, with five placings from 11 starts this season. He remains in the mix again. He will receive a sweet run from barrier 1 and could present better value after going under as favourite at short odds in his last two runs.

6 Loving Vibes broke through for a well-deserved maiden win last start in his 12th attempt. He has been consistent and that carries him in good stead for a chance of going back-to-back, especially with Purton sticking around.

2 Super Sixty has won two of his past three starts over 1,000m, but there would not be any concerns stepping back up to 1,200m - his past efforts over the trip have been solid. The 4YO has likely not reached his ceiling yet.

Race 7 (1,200m)

5 King Miles is worth sticking with despite back-to-back runner-up finishes. Two starts ago, he was less than a length behind Crimson Flash, who has since won again. Last start, he jumped awkwardly, settled rearward, and was the best closer against the race shape after storming home late behind Chateauneuf. If he can make early use of barrier 3, he looks very hard to hold out late.

6 Victory Sky was solid last start from barrier 11. He was caught wide from the 600m but still found the line strongly to miss by only a head to Kaholo Angel.

8 Beauty Glory shapes as the likely leader and his recent form has been encouraging, including placings behind Endeared and Everyone's Star. He will give a good sight and may be hard to peg back.

10 Lo Pan Spirit had his first go at this course and distance last start but his poor run with barriers continued, drawing gate 10 and stuck wide throughout. Still, he was just 2¾ lengths off the winner in seventh. Any luck in running puts him right in the mix, but again, he draws poorly in gate 12.

Race 8 (1,650m)

11 Super Unicorn has been in and out of form since his dominant 5¾-length victory earlier this season. He now steps out for the first time for trainer Mark Newnham, who has a proven track record with stable transfers, and Super Unicorn could well be the next success story.

12 Harold Win simply cannot be dismissed from barrier 1 following a series of very strong efforts in quality races. While Andrea Atzeni is not aboard this time, it is a handy pick-up ride for Keith Yeung.

7 Prestige Always was out at the back from barrier 10 over 1,200m last start - a trip short of his best - but made late ground in a run that reads better than it looks. A strong trial win and the rise in trip both work in his favour.

6 King Of Fighters has shown glimpses of ability both in Australia and Hong Kong, and now rises in distance after four 1,200m runs at Happy Valley. The extra trip could unlock the improvement needed to notch his first win.

Race 9 (1,200m)

9 Dragon Four Seas drew wide in barrier 10 on his first try in Class 3 last time. After being bumped at the start, he surged forward and worked hard to find the lead around the 600m. He held it until the 200m before fading to sixth, beaten just over a length. His win two starts ago came when ridden with a sit. If those tactics are employed again, and with a kinder race shape, he can bounce back.

3 Power Koepp has turned his form around since joining Newnham, winning first-up for the yard, then placing narrowly before winning again smartly last start. He is drawn to get the race run to suit and looms large again.

1 Happy Fat Cat made it nine wins with an all-the-way effort from barrier 11 last time. He now sits atop Class 3, but his natural speed and tough racing style ensure he will give a bold sight again.

10 Golden Rise was very disappointing last start from barrier 1 last time, but he is worth another chance at a better price.

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